ZERO Growth Forecast from TD

TD Bank issued their economic forecast in March 2013.   While most are lamenting the additional strains placed on First Time Buyers, TD rightly graphs the reduction in the number of First Time Purchasers by age group.  Immediately beside this is a graph of How many will be over the age of 65 during the next few decades.   After 2030 the Mature market will continue at 25% of the entire Canadian Population?

What does this imply?   ZERO net growth over the cost of inflation. 

Thank you to Romy Alegria with TD for providing the following details;

•  We project a 3.5% annual rate of return on real estate to prevail beyond 2015 – this is the long-run rate of increase for home prices in Canada. However, this pace will be moderately lower than they have been historically (5.4%). (for more information see attachment)
• It comes as no surprise that new home construction has started 2013 on a soft note, given the fact that housing starts ran at a pace that has largely been deemed as unsustainable in 2012. Indeed, there is strong evidence that building construction grew faster than demand for new homes in 2012. With the 6-month average of housing starts at 195,000 units, new home building is still well above the 180,000 units that are needed to keep up with household formation
• The amount of overbuilding in the Canadian housing market has been a concern for the last decade. It is estimated that the Canadian housing market is oversupplied by roughly 250,000 to 300,000 units. As such, we expect starts to continue to soften in the coming years as the new home market works off some of these excesses
• The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate unchanged at 1.00%, but had a more dovish tone in its communique, suggesting lower for longer interest rates.

Long Run Rate of Return for Canadian Home Prices 1 by David Pylyp

Romy Alegria is forming a new group in Toronto for Women's Prosperity.  Are you interested?  They even started a Facebook Group. 

Do you agree with the details in the News release?   The information in the Graphs?  Will you be downsizing or have you moved on from your parents home in the Toronto GTA.  Now its an estate sale.   Call me