Toronto Real Estate The Year in Review

Toronto Real Estate Stats and Graphes

http://communications3.torontomls.net/auth2/mediafiles/Market-Year-in-Review/pdf/2019-YearInReview_interactive_2Col.pdf 

What do you think will happen?

Toronto Real Estate Board says;

TREB President Garry Bhaura announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 4,009 home sales through TREB’s MLS® in January 2019 – up by 0.6 per cent compared to January 2018. On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up by 3.4 per cent compared to December 2018.
“It is encouraging to see the slight increase in January transactions on a year-overyear basis, even with the inclement weather experienced in the GTA region during the last week of the month. The fact that the number of transactions edged upwards is in line with TREB’s forecast for higher sales in calendar year 2019,” http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/market_watch/2019/mw1901.pdf

 Garth Turner says:

But here’s the reality. As reported here ten days ago, the current average detached 416 price of $1.174 million is 13.3% lower than it was exactly 12 months ago. Someone needing to sell would have a loss of more than $180,000 plus $47,138 in land transfer tax (paid when they bought) and another $58,700 in commission. The total hit = $285,800, or 21%. The average detached house in the heart of the GTA is changing hands for 12% less than in the Spring of last year and a 25.6% below what it commanded the previous year. https://www.greaterfool.ca/2019/02/15/the-fraud/

Real Estate is local

We need to look neighbourhood by neighbourhood, street by street.

Not all are down.... 

Where do you get your real estate advice?   Over the fence from Wilson? 

Sometimes, Garth Turner is very right

Love him or hate him, Garth Turner does make some very good points in this blog post about where we are with the Toronto and Vancouver real estate markets.  
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/11/08/too-late-4/  @GarthTurner 

Imagine your disappointment at finally being able to buy a second investment property for your ageing Self, to come to town to your medical appointments or use in town when you’re going to go to the theatre only to have the government tell you that you have to pay a vacancy tax on the unit.

I agree with Garth Turner's  perspective in this article, that it is indeed punitive to punish people for investing in a secondary unit. We also added [ONTARIO] strict landlord tenant increase restrictions.

The government has not kept pace with providing for seniors in their elder years and have laid waste many pensions,raided by corporations for their cash values or diverted saving to pay creditors, so there is a great need for individuals to plan and save for their future retirement where the current government wants to look after everything for us. Sometimes, Garth Turner is very right.

People who bought personal-use properties, paid market value, shoveled out closing costs and foot ongoing property tax and financing charges are now looking at a staggering tax just for staying there less than 50% of the time. The tax also casts them as social pariah when, in fact, it’s the opposite. A guy living part-time in his Yaletown condo is shelling out the same money for occasional use of city services as the family of four living one floor below who suck up much more. He pays 100% of the tax and yet draws 50% less.  http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/11/08/too-late-4/

In two circumstances, this article does not go far enough first to discuss the mortgage interest rate differential that will eliminate many buyers from the marketplace by having to qualify at a POSTED rate of 5.5% while actually getting a rate of three or 3.5 on the mortgage over 25 years.

The second issue is the lack of tax revenues for the Ontario government and especially the City of Toronto Municipal government for the land transfer tax that is charged to secondary buyers. If they are not buying a property, the city is not making the taxes and indeed the market is  down over 25% in activity versus last year. This will be reflected in the property tax revenues that the city has available to pay for services that it provides to it's residents next year. We have yet to hear how much the shortfall in revenues is from the actual forecast maybe,  Sue Ann Levy  can shed some better light  @sueannelevy 

What do you think?

Are you making a move this year?