Yes the Condo Market is dropping; But not everywhere

 

There are a number of High Density Condos that have been in the news lately for different reasons; 

AIRBnb Units owners in fight over ByLaw changes that prohibit  AIR bnb operators access in certain condo corporations.

Vacancy Rates Cause 20 - 30% drop in Rents.  

Covid has caused an exodus from the core with people moving elsewhere to work from home.  This has driven the prices on RENTALS down by almost 30% in some neighbourhoods.

While this is a catchy headline its not a universal axiom.

Barry Lebow, Broker with RE/MAX Ultimate  posts...

It is easy to look at data and accept the results at face value. When those of you who are interested in the Toronto condominium market please understand, the data is raw, not pure. It is not filtered.

If I were analyzing the data I would break it down to:

1) units that lack balconies

2) units that are under 600 square feet

3) units between 600-800 square feet

4) then in variances of increasing size

5) locations, with the inner city skewing the data

In general, we have not noticed declines in livable, home condominiums. Livable to me, at least 850 square feet and with a balcony.

If we draw a boundary of say Eglinton Avenue across Toronto and look at the data south of that line versus north of that line we would have different results. There would be some influence from the overly high density Yonge-Eglinton sector though.

As one pushes into the Toronto suburbs of say Willowdale, Downsview, etc. one does not notice a decline in pricing.

Data at best is a stew with all ingredients tossed in to blend but mathematically data does not truly reflect anyone segment of a market.

Units that are at 1,000 square feet, 2 bedrooms with a den are not subjected to the same FLEE or Fight mentality; it houses families.

Units with a view of Lake Ontario have not been impacted at all.  In My building there are 279 units.  At the last disclosure statement there are only 35 Rental Units.  Slightly above 10%.

MOVE UP Home Buyers vacating the downtown core are fighting a headline but are having difficulty getting showing to sell.

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Propinquity

What is it?


So buying a place that is at the City Center is logically more expensive.  The trend to live downtown within the City Core or at the edge of transit (suburbs) is desirable. 

Having the place on the beach  YUP   I get that.

The question I'm asking is simple...

Is Toronto a Growth City that is continuing to expand or are we into a retraction?  A wise gentleman Barry Lebow recently said; 

Here is a simple fact that escapes these writers, the journalists who live with their noses against the windows of life, looking in and being envious of that which they do not personally have - no matter how bad the economy, no matter how high the prices, no matter how outrageous the interest rates, houses will be sold! Period. The "why" escapes them and that is the yearning for a place of one's own, the yearning to have equity, to own versus rent and one of the major factors, our immigration. What is denied most citizens of the world? Rights, human rights and one of those is the right to own land, to own a home. The burning desire to own will outweigh the logic of all economists, journalists or others who analyze real estate like it is actually a rational market. Buying real estate is not rational, it is emotional. So let the gloom and doomers have their say, the public reaction to the market is still the only true barometer of where the market is going. 

The Canadian Business Magazine has a different perspective;

How Low will Prices Go? Investors are potentially more likely to sell when prices decline, which could ultimately flood the condo market with resale listings. With 240,000 more planned condo units yet to be built in the Toronto area, many are worried about a burgeoning supply-demand imbalance. Already, investors are backing away from the Toronto condo market  http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/how-low-will-house-prices-go/

All those with strong disposable incomes who want that LARGE Modern Bungalow [into their retirement] cannot find [IT] in the City MUST move themselves to the suburbs and outlying communities.  In the last few years I have seen bungalow demand continue to increase and wheel chair accessibility become more common questions. People want large condo units in the city but maintenance and taxes are prohibitive, In addition to the price per square foot.

Propinquity exists because the house is beside or near something you want or need. 

What do you think?
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