20 - 24% of our Population in Canada will be Seniors by 2035

WHAT AN IMPACTFUL STATEMENT!

By 2035 the number of seniors will swell to 22 - 24% of population.

And a high-growth scenario sees the number of Canadians swelling to 63.5 million.

The scenarios differ in their assumptions about future immigration levels, fertility rates and longevity. For planning purposes, the most sensible approach is to use the medium-growth scenario, which points to a national population of roughly 50 million a half century from now.

In all scenarios, the proportions of senior citizens within the population – defined as people aged 65 and over – edges higher. From 15.3 per cent today, the ranks of Canadian seniors will expand to comprise 22 to 24 per cent of the population by the early 2030s.
http://www.newsoptimist.ca/article/20141029/BATTLEFORD0304/310299999/0/battleford03

These are incredible numbers! With a population of  60 million people in Canada  (2035) 24% will be drawing a pension.    What else will they do differently?

• Buy fewer clothes
• Buy fewer houses
• Buy fewer Cars
• Livelonger off Pension Income
• Hold Houses Longer

There will be a spin off reduction in all things that are consumer based products as the seniors become more shut in.

So what are some solutions?

Housing Trends - Millennials

This is such an articulate explanation of Millennials, Boom Bust and Echo and emerging need to Seniors housing I just want to quote the entire article.

Since 1921, the largest annual increase in the number of births occurred between 1945 and 1946, with an increase of about 15% and marked the start of the baby boom period. The largest relative decrease (-8%) occurred between 1964 and 1965, marking the end of the post World War II baby boom.
During the 20 years of the boom, more than 8.2 million babies were born, averaging close to 412,000 a year. By comparison, births in 2008 — when the population was twice as large as during the baby boom — amounted to 377,886. The average number of children per woman was 3.7 during the baby boom period, compared to about 1.7 in recent years.
According to the 2011 Census, 9.6 million persons, or close to three Canadians out of 10 (29%), were baby boomers. In addition to the large number of native births between 1946 and 1965, this generation has benefited from sustained immigration levels since the end of the 1980s.
Considerable research has been undertaken regarding the potential housing market impacts going forward of the “baby boomer” generation. Trends anticipated by various researchers and commentators include:
Possible adverse impacts on home values in some newer neighbourhoods, more distant from the downtown core and/or suburban employment centres, based on more existing units coming onto the market at the same time;

• Increased demand for smaller units and/or condominium units in “walkable” neighbourhoods that involve less commuting;

• Higher housing prices in established neighbourhoods that may effectively reduce opportunities for most “Millennials” or “Gen Y” home buyers;

• Different kinds of housing demand based on values and experiences of “boomers” compared with both older and younger generations; and

• Increased intensity of local debate over urban growth in cities because retired boomers have time, money, and skills to engage.

A study from the Conference Board of Canada predicted that by 2030 about 80% of new housing demand would be consumers in their retirement years. It would bring a new wave of homes that are low maintenance, such as condominiums or seniors residences. At the same time the shift would put downward pressure on prices of traditional single-detached homes.
Those same boomers, when they were in their 20s in the 1970s, helped drive the market to new heights with new housing starts reaching a record 274,000 in 1976. Then it was the boomer’s children, the “echo-boomers”, who helped drive the market last decade as they began forming households. Now, it’s going full circle with boomers downsizing. In 2006, 57% of condo owners were over the age of 50 while 17% were over the age of 75.
Several commentators believe that equity and house prices may be adversely affected by baby boomers as they reduce purchases and sell holdings during their retirement years. But the perils of relying on demographics alone to predict house prices were illustrated early on. In 1989, the much-discussed paper, “The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust and The Housing Market” by N.G. Mankiw and D.N. Weil, analyzed demographic factors. They predicted U.S. real house prices would fall by 3% annually between 1987 and 2007. Instead, they rose by about 4% a year.
In demographics expert David K. Foot’s 1996 book, “Boom, Bust and Echo – How to Profit From the Coming Demographic Shift”, the real-estate decline of the early 1990s was projected to continue over the long term. He posited this because he believed most boomers had already acquired their houses. The “baby bust” generation following them did not have the numbers to pick up the slack. Instead, housing activity picked up again in the 2000s, as immigration, migration within Canada, and a resurgent economy drove new residential growth.
Estimating the long-run rate of return for Canadian home prices is also affected by the baby boomers. The Canadian Home Builders Association projects a 3.5% annual rate of return on real estate to prevail beyond 2015 — this is the long-run rate of increase for home prices in Canada. In other words, home price gains should simply match the pace of inflation. The long-run rate of return for home prices is primarily driven by macroeconomic fundamentals, such as income and economic growth, and demographics (e.g., population and household formation). Structural changes, including an ageing populace and the number of immigrants as a share of total homebuyers, could influence real estate returns. However, the literature is mixed on whether these changes represent an upside or downside risk to the 3.5% status-quo projection.”
Research primarily undertaken in 1980s and early 1990s showed that when people retire they tend to remain in their existing home until they die or are unable to care for themselves. Baby boomers are the healthiest and wealthiest generation in history and can afford the broad range of services necessary for them to continue this trend and remain in their single family homes for as long as they wish. This projected longevity will keep many of their homes off the market for decades and increase the projected demand for additional land requirements through urban boundary expansions. There is only one certainty about the impact of baby boomers on future housing markets — that it will be spread over a period of 20 years. It is therefore unlikely that it will generate any unmanageable shocks to the structural or financial market underpinnings.   http://www.ottawasun.com/2013/09/20/baby-boomers-and-housing-trends

The big elephant in the room is the liability that our political leaders have had time to prepare;  adequate housing and nursing care for seniors.

David Pylyp
Accredited Senior Agent

ZERO Growth Forecast from TD

TD Bank issued their economic forecast in March 2013.   While most are lamenting the additional strains placed on First Time Buyers, TD rightly graphs the reduction in the number of First Time Purchasers by age group.  Immediately beside this is a graph of How many will be over the age of 65 during the next few decades.   After 2030 the Mature market will continue at 25% of the entire Canadian Population?

What does this imply?   ZERO net growth over the cost of inflation. 

Thank you to Romy Alegria with TD for providing the following details;

•  We project a 3.5% annual rate of return on real estate to prevail beyond 2015 – this is the long-run rate of increase for home prices in Canada. However, this pace will be moderately lower than they have been historically (5.4%). (for more information see attachment)
• It comes as no surprise that new home construction has started 2013 on a soft note, given the fact that housing starts ran at a pace that has largely been deemed as unsustainable in 2012. Indeed, there is strong evidence that building construction grew faster than demand for new homes in 2012. With the 6-month average of housing starts at 195,000 units, new home building is still well above the 180,000 units that are needed to keep up with household formation
• The amount of overbuilding in the Canadian housing market has been a concern for the last decade. It is estimated that the Canadian housing market is oversupplied by roughly 250,000 to 300,000 units. As such, we expect starts to continue to soften in the coming years as the new home market works off some of these excesses
• The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate unchanged at 1.00%, but had a more dovish tone in its communique, suggesting lower for longer interest rates.

Long Run Rate of Return for Canadian Home Prices 1 by David Pylyp

Romy Alegria is forming a new group in Toronto for Women's Prosperity.  Are you interested?  They even started a Facebook Group. 

Do you agree with the details in the News release?   The information in the Graphs?  Will you be downsizing or have you moved on from your parents home in the Toronto GTA.  Now its an estate sale.   Call me